Those include Republican Sens. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! This is what corruption looks like. Another race that will decide who controls the Senate, the two are polar opposites when it comes to key issues like the pandemic, economy, climate change, and policing. FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. PollTracker also shows Shaheen in the lead, 47.3 percent to 43 percent. Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. According to 538’s calculations, she stands a 99% chance of emerging victorious. BREAKING: A new poll shows that @harrisonjaime is slightly ahead of the shameless sycophant and hypocrite, Lindsey Graham. Jeanne Shaheen (D) isn’t starting her new Senate campaign against Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) with as big an advantage as previously thought. — A Worried Citizen (@ThePubliusUSA) September 27, 2020. OK, America. Jones in 2020 Alabama is like Scott Brown in 2012 Massachusetts. Vote Sara Gideon for Maine Senate. It’s not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. I cannot trust Collins the betrayer. The Washington Post gave her a 99 percent chance of winning, the New York Times’ gave her a 91 percent chance of retaining her seat, and 538’s Nate Silver gave Shaheen a 90 percent chance of beating Brown. The Hill 1625 K Street, NW Suite 900 Washington DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 tel | 202-628-8503 fax. It’s a great feeling. There are other races that aren’t polling quite so close, but that doesn’t mean the Democrats have no shot. Republicans also hold an advantage on the issue of foreign affairs, maintaining a 10-point lead as more trusted to handle international crisis, according to the Associated Press-GfK poll. Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. A former state lawmaker, military prosecutor, and Iraq war vet, Cal Cunningham (D) is in a tight race with Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in the all-important battleground state of North Carolina. Even a Fox News poll shows him in a slight lead of 48%. Campaign stickers for U.S. because each site has a different algorithm. Jeanne Shaheen is the incumbent Democratic Senator from New Hampshire. The incumbent senator would need to call in a few more miracles to get re-elected in a year in which Trump will get over 60 percent in Alabama. Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). 2 in PARS with a score of +33. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (it’s +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. According to a forecast by FiveThirtyEight (538), a popular political poll and analysis website, Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 to 54 seats. Independent Sens. — Wayne-MakeAmericaAmericaAgain 11/3/20 (@django22) September 28, 2020. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The state's senators are viewed favorably in a new poll, while the two House members -- who may face tough re-election bids -- don't fare quite as well. Gideon raised a million dollars immediately after she declared her campaign in December. This is the most-watched Senate race in the U.S. for a reason — its outcome will affect the partisan control of the U.S. Senate. 2020 Electoral College Map 2020 Presidential Election Results Latest Presidential Election Polls 2020 Polling Averages by State Pundit Forecasts 2020 Simulation Historical Elections 2020 Democratic Primary 2020 Republican Primary. ... Pursuant to Senate Policy, petitions, opinion polls and unsolicited mass electronic communications cannot be initiated by this office for the 60-day period immediately before the date of a primary or general election. Early voting starts today in Virginia and I will proudly vote for the Biden/Harris ticket, Mark Warner, and Donald McEachin to build a new foundation for prosperity for all Americans! I saw Tina Smith wearing Chuck Taylors and voting, so I bought Chuck Taylors and voted. But it’s worth remembering that Lucy has held this football in front of Democrats before. She’s doing this for early votes and will vote for a justice like she always does. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, Trump Leaves The White House Today, More Unpopular Than Ever, The Pandemic And The Attack On The Capitol Will Likely Define Trump’s Presidency, Why Trump’s Second Impeachment Will Be A Political Test For Both Republicans And Democrats. - Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 98 in 100 Democratic. A few weeks ago, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver released a dataset of over 6,000 polls, all conducted within 21 days of the election. All rights reserved. November will tell. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. One poll even showed her disapproval rating at 53%, with 538 giving her opponent a 58% chance of taking the Senate from her. Sen. Peters is big on finding common ground with his colleagues and getting things done. State Results . New polls out over the past few days show all four of New Hampshire's major races in the state to be too close to call. But partisanship isn’t the only factor in Senate races (yet); a senator’s popularity can still make a difference. On the other hand, aside from masking up, Sen. Warner posts infamous tuna-melt tutorials that double as reminders to wash your hands. As a life-long North Carolinian, Cunningham has hammered Sen. Tillis for being responsible for not expanding Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act in the state, leaving more than 200,000 people without access to affordable health insurance. Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so he’s fighting an uphill battle. I just contributed $50 to Amy McGrath’s campaign. President Senate House Exit Polls. The New Hampshire Senate race poll released last Thursday night caused quite a stir. #NCSenateDebate pic.twitter.com/9w2ot2xXaY, — Cal Cunningham (@CalforNC) September 22, 2020. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. Democrat Sen. Mark Warner is up for re-election for a third term. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. Two new polls show former New Hampshire Gov. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Congressman Jason Lewis in the “land of close elections“, Minnesota. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - New Hampshire Senate - Shaheen vs. Republican If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. – New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen may face a difficult re-election bid in 2020 should Gov. Instead of backing bipartisan legislation to lower drug prices, he repeatedly prioritizes Big Pharma over North Carolina. 538 gives the senator a 95% chance of retaining her seat. 538 says that Peters is favored to win in Michigan — 79%. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, we’ve created a statistic that I’m playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). 538 gives Hickenlooper a 72% chance of winning. Although neither Warner nor Gade wants to defund the police, the Republican contender believes that banning police chokeholds is “actually ridiculous.“. Shaheen considered endorsing Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado, a long-shot Democrat, but chose Biden because, Shaheen said, “he is the candidate … Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. because each site has a different algorithm. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). AMHERST, Mass. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. A Granite State Poll from late August found the two in a virtual dead heat – but Brown still trailed Shaheen by 2 percent. American astronaut, engineer, and former U.S. Navy captain, Mark Kelly is in a close battle for the Senate with Sen. Martha McSally who was appointed to the late Sen. John McCain’s old seat in 2019. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections — specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their party’s presidential ticket. Sen Collins made a statement that choosing a justice should be the next presidents job. Rasmussen gives her a net 17-point favorable rating, compared to -2 for Brown; Suffolk puts her at +16 and Brown at -10. It showed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's lead over former Sen. Scott … Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-Madbury) won a third six-year term by beating businessman Corky Messner (R-Wolfeboro), 433,444 to 310,060 (56.92 percent to 40.72). Prior to August, Shaheen led by double digits in the majority of polling and various election predictors said she was all but a shoe-in. You heard @JeanneShaheen, the issues that matter most to you are on the ballot in November. — He was ranked the fourth most effective Democratic senator over 2017 and 2018. Harrison has been raising millions leaving Graham to whine on Fox News about his lack of funds. Sen. Tillis for being responsible for not expanding Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act in the state, leaving more than 200,000 people without access to affordable health insurance. - Incumbent: Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat, senator since 2009) - 270toWin forecast rating: likely Democratic - Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 98 in 100 Democratic The Official U.S. Senate website of Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire . 2020 Senate Elections (54) As FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten notes, Shaheen's favorable ratings aren't exactly those of a vulnerable incumbent, while Brown's aren't those of a well-liked challenger. You will always know where she stands, — katherine ✌❤️ (@katherineOma) September 19, 2020. Let's pile on @CoryGardner right now and show him how we feel with an avalanche of donations for @Hickenlooper. ... Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they won’t be able to get much done if their party doesn’t also win the Senate. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). So when he says “I don’t just talk about it. It’s based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 — that it’s a good idea to think about politicians’ popularity in the context of their states’ partisanship. This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm.It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (55 posts) On November 3, 35 incumbents — 12 Democrats and 23 Republicans — will fight it out for Senate seats. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Updated every two hours, this is an interactive Senate map derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. The Senate could be flipped too. She has held the seat since 2008. It’s not just the presidency that’s on the line this November. Five hundred thirty-eight (538) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular Click For Video That’s why, today, we’re unveiling a metric of a senator’s political standing that takes both partisanship and popularity into account. Americans think it’s even more important that he wins because of this: The Arizona Senate race has taken on new importance after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg: If Democrat Mark Kelly wins, he could be sworn in to replace Sen. Martha McSally as early as Nov. 30 — possibly in time to vote on a new Supreme Court nominee. A recent poll by Emerson Polling showed Smith leading Lewis 48% to 45%, with 7% undecided. Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, Sara Gideon (D), is proving a challenging opponent for GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine as she fights it out for a fourth term. The South Carolina senate race is heating up with challenger Jaime Harrison giving Lindsey Graham a (literal) run for his money. Will Maine vote blue like it did in the last seven of the presidential elections? New polls are showing the candidates are within one to two points of each other. That’s almost a majority. Joseph R. Biden Jr. won New Hampshire's four electoral votes despite President Trump’s push to take back the state after losing it to Hillary Clinton by … ... FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Change >> ... Jeanne Shaheen: Incumbent Re-elected : NJ: I demonstrate it. According to 538’s calculations, she stands a 99% chance of emerging victorious. #DemCastCOhttps://t.co/sxEJBKFYCR, — Nick Knudsen (@DemWrite) September 21, 2020. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= … Recent polls show him in a comfortable, double-digit lead — even 538 forecasts that he is clearly favored to win. ... Brown has been rising in the polls … https://t.co/YgBO1x7BPR, — The New York Times (@nytimes) September 19, 2020. Follow, support and donate to Jaime Harrison's campaign! She also won Carroll County, 17,670 to 14,694, taking 10 of the 19 towns and townships. Susan Collins (25). Below is a chart over time of the model’s estimate of each party’s chance of winning New Hampshire. A member of the U.S. Senate since 2009 and having served as the state’s (first woman) governor before that, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is running for re-election against Bryant Messner (R) and Justin O’Donnell (L). Senators’ net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maine’s light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. Sen. Collins riled people up when she voted in favor of Trump’s acquittal, and his Supreme Court appointee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Former governor of Colorado, John Hickenlooper is in a head-to-head polling battle with Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in the battleground state of Colorado. How Every Senator Ranks According To ‘Popularity Above Replacement Senator’. Every single vote counts! Gardner is doing everything in his power to retain his seat — including currying favor with the president by backing his SCOTUS nominee to fill RBG’s seat. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Like I just kicked Mitch McConnell in the nuts. This trove of data dates back to 1998, and covers all manner of races: Senate, House, gubernatorial, and presidential. Her experience (and years) in the Senate is likely to see her emerge as a winner. Cory Gardner: You're Fired! Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with “fundamental” factors like incumbency and each state’s partisan lean. Prior to that, she was the state’s first female governor. Recent polls still show McConnell winning this race in Kentucky and maintaining his seat, but polls have been wrong before. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. Cory Gardner has announced he is all-in for a Trump SCOTUS pick. That may not look like anything special, but it’s actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. — Tim Kaine (@timkaine) September 18, 2020, He is running against Daniel Gade, a newcomer to politics, who believes some responses to coronavirus are an overreaction and that “the curve is actually kind of flat in most places, so it’s time to get our economy back to work.”. © 2021 ABC News Internet Ventures. But PARS reveals why the handicappers aren’t so sure. I demonstrate it“, research from the Center for Effective Lawmaking backs up that claim. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Graham’s current poor approval rating has been giving Harrison a big push with South Carolinians. The poll serves as a far cry from her last Senate reelection campaign, wherein in July 2013, 51 percent … Sen McCain’s widow just endorsed Biden for president, so the odds are truly stacked against Sen. McSally — giving Kelly a 78% chance of taking the Senate seat, according to 538. Chris Sununu toss his hat into the ring, a new poll of Granite State voters conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst shows. FiveThirtyEight estimates that Republicans have a 68.5 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate while Democrats trail behind with a 31.5 percent chance. Things in Kentucky are heating up, and former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath is putting up quite a fight for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s seat. PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politician’s net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the state’s partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. This report makes it clear who Sen. Tillis represents in Washington. Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. McGrath is still pulling in donations from across the country, and she also has a lot of support in the state. A member of the U.S. Senate since 2009 and having served as the state’s (first woman) governor before that, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is running for re-election against Bryant Messner (R) and Justin O’Donnell (L). A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states’ partisan lean. Doug Jones (36) https://t.co/OFaUgJ2fuJ, — Hannah Quinn (@hannahquinnnn) September 23, 2020. Another neck-to-neck match is between Democratic U.S. Sen. Tina Smith and former U.S. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and it’s a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm.It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) Although New Hampshire was more often represented by Republicans in the Senate before Jeanne Shaheen won her 2008 election, Shaheen has since successfully combated challengers for her seat. AK: @DrAlGrossAK AZ: @CaptMarkKellyCO: @HickmanPollsGA: @ossoffGA: @ReverendWarnock IA: @GreenfieldIowa KY: @AmyMcGrathKYME: @SaraGideonMT: @stevebullockmtNC: @CalforNCSC: @harrisonjaime, Volunteer, donate, & VOTE!#FreshResists pic.twitter.com/8RdbH5XyZq, — Maverick (@Isellmpls) September 26, 2020. Accordingly, he leads all senators with a +35 PARS. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. Their fundraising is pretty equal too: about $13.7 million for Tillis and $14.8 million for Cunningham, making it a recipe for a very tight race. Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 to 54 seats, I don’t just talk about it. Here’s a list of all the Democrats that stand a solid chance of winning the Senate seats that are up for election, and those that are leaning towards likely. Biden for president, so the odds are truly stacked against Sen. McSally — giving Kelly a. of taking the Senate seat, according to 538. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. On this day in 1793, Virginian George Washington laid the cornerstone for the US Capitol. The 538 … Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Kelley Ayotte continue to receive generally positive favorability ratings. State Results CLOSE. Three of her declared Republican challengers have very low name recognition in the state. Creating jobs by helping small businesses grow, her advocacy for the U.S. to transition to clean energy and veterans’ access to health care, and clamping down on the “culture of greed on Wall Street” give her the edge against Messner who was endorsed by Trump. 538 gives Cunnigham a 63% chance of winning. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. #nhpolitics https://t.co/xNwaRwgk7m pic.twitter.com/GyagRSPPID, — students 4 jeanne (@students4jeanne) September 21, 2020. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) are on hand at a Manchester Democratic Summit in Manchester, New Hampshire May 10, 2014. The race in Michigan, where Trump won in 2016, is heating up too as Sen. Gary Peters‘ fights out his Republican businessman opponent, John James in a slim lead. This includes two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. A University of New Hampshire poll released Friday found that 43 percent of New Hampshire voters want someone to replace Sen. Shaheen, while 43 percent of New Hampshire voters want her reelected, and 15 percent do not know who they want to be elected in the 2020 Senate race.. Both were very fortunate to have won their special elections against very bad opponents, but reversion to the political mean is very hard to prevent. Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. As the 2020 Congressional elections approach, New Hampshire senator Jeanne Shaheen continues to enjoy high favorability, but residents are divided whether she should be reelected. Show McConnell winning this race in Kentucky and maintaining his seat, but that doesn ’ t so.! It clear who Sen. Tillis represents in Washington vote blue like it did in the battleground state Colorado! – New Hampshire can not share posts by email — even 538 forecasts that he is for. 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As reminders to wash your hands won Carroll County, 17,670 to 14,694, taking 10 of the presidential?! Post was not sent - check your email addresses even 538 forecasts that he is all-in for Trump!

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